Evidence-Proportioned Belief

Rational belief requires that one’s degree of belief, or credence, aligns with available evidence. This alignment maximizes predictive accuracy, as demonstrated by scoring rules like the Brier and logarithmic scores. However, psychological factors—fear of uncertainty, identity protection, faith as a virtue, misconceptions about evidence, double standards, and harmful intuitions—often impede this alignment. Though understandable, these barriers highlight the human struggle to achieve true epistemic rationality for better decision-making outcomes.