The purpose of this cave analogy is to highlight how someone can mistakenly claim that every intricate entity must be the work of an intelligence simply because some intricate entities are known to be man-made. By comparing man-made caves and naturally formed caves, we illustrate how a person might wrongly infer universal design from a limited set of observations. This mirrors the creationist argument where people note that many complex artifacts (such as buildings, cars, and watches) are clearly designed, and then assume that all complex structures in nature—like cells—must also require a designer. In the analogy, a father and his inquisitive son explore different caves. While the father insists that each new cave is man-made based on his past encounters, the son questions the father’s assumptions and draws attention to geological processes that can form caves without human intervention. By walking through the father’s logical missteps—from overgeneralization to circular reasoning—we can see why it is problematic to conclude that complexity always implies design.

1. Introduction

Father and Son Scenario
A father and his young son step into a dimly lit cave during a family road trip. The father looks around and declares, “This cave must have been dug by people—just like every other cave I’ve ever seen!” The boy tilts his head and responds, “But, Dad, maybe some caves form naturally from water erosion or other processes.” The father dismisses that possibility, confident that all caves share a man-made origin. This dialogue mirrors the creationist argument that all complex features in nature must be produced by intelligence.

Symbolic Logic
Premise: All caves I (the father) have observed so far are man-made.
Conclusion: Therefore, every cave that exists must also be man-made.

Or more formally:

Premise (spoken): “Every cave observed is man-made.”
Conclusion (spoken): “Hence, any cave you show me must be man-made.”

No consideration is given to unobserved or different kinds of caves.


2. The Fundamental Creationist Claim

Father and Son Scenario
While wandering deeper into the cave, the father says, “Son, every complex structure I know—bridges, tunnels, buildings—was designed by people. So if a cave is complex, it must also have a designer.” The boy counters, “But, Dad, nature can shape things, too. We haven’t examined all caves, right?” The father simply repeats, “Complex equals man-made. Always.”

Symbolic Logic
Let C(x) mean “x is a cave.”
Let M(x) mean “x is man-made.”
Let Complex(x) mean “x is complex.”

Creationist-style argument:
Premise 1: \forall x \bigl((Complex(x) \wedge C(x)) \to M(x)\bigr)
Premise 2: The new cave k is a cave and is complex, so C(k) \wedge Complex(k).
Conclusion: Therefore, M(k).


3. Overview of the Cave Analogy

Father and Son Scenario
They find a branching passage. One side has concrete supports—clearly carved by humans. The other side is rugged and seems untouched. The father points to the first path: “There, that’s definitely man-made!” The boy nods, then gestures toward the natural passage, asking, “Couldn’t this cave be different in origin?” The father shrugs it off, maintaining that all caves share the same origin.

Symbolic Logic
Let H(x) mean “x is a human-dug cave.”
Let N(x) mean “x is a naturally formed cave.”

Father’s assumption:

\forall x (C(x) \to H(x))

But reality includes:

\exists x \bigl(C(x) \wedge N(x)\bigr)

(There are naturally formed caves.)


4. Missteps Exposed by the Cave Analogy

4.1 Overgeneralization

Father and Son Scenario
The father declares, “Since all caves I’ve ever personally seen were man-made, then all caves in existence must be man-made.” The son raises an eyebrow: “Dad, that’s like saying every swan must be white because you’ve only seen white swans. Maybe there are caves formed by other means?”

Symbolic Logic
Let O(x) mean “x is a cave the father has observed.”
Let M(x) mean “x is man-made.”
Let C(x) mean “x is a cave (whether observed or not).”

Overgeneralization:
Premise: \forall x \bigl(O(x) \to M(x)\bigr) (“Every cave I’ve observed is man-made.”)
Invalid conclusion: \forall x \bigl(C(x) \to M(x)\bigr) (“Therefore, all caves—observed or not—are man-made.”)


4.2 Circular Reasoning (Begging the Question)

Father and Son Scenario
The father eyes a new cave. “This must be man-made because all caves are man-made.” The son asks, “But why believe all caves are man-made?” The father replies, “Because I’ve already decided they are!” The boy laughs gently, pointing out: “That’s not showing why they’re man-made; you’re assuming it.”

Symbolic Logic
Father’s premise and conclusion:

  • Premise: \forall x \bigl(C(x) \to M(x)\bigr) (“All caves are man-made.”)
  • Observation: The new cave is a cave (C(k)).
  • Conclusion: M(k) (“The new cave must be man-made.”)

He’s using the conclusion as if it were proof.


4.3 Ignoring Natural Processes

Father and Son Scenario
They step into a spacious cavern filled with stalagmites and stalactites. Dripping water has dissolved rock for ages, forming beautiful patterns. The father scoffs, “Must’ve been carved out by people with tools.” The son points to the water channels: “What if erosion did this? Water can create holes and tunnels.” But the father dismisses erosion as too weak a force.

Symbolic Logic
Let P(x) mean “x can be produced by natural processes.”
Let ¬P(x) mean “x cannot be produced by natural processes.”

Father’s stance: \forall x (C(x) \to \neg P(x)). (“If it’s a cave, it cannot be natural.”)
Reality: \exists y (C(y) \wedge P(y)). (“There exists at least one cave formed by natural processes.”)


4.4 Confirmation Bias

Father and Son Scenario
Exploring more caves, the father insists each one is man-made. The son observes, “Dad, you focus on anything that seems artificial—like scratch marks—but ignore signs of natural formation. You don’t even check for mineral patterns or flowing water.” The father simply says, “I see what proves my point, so that’s that.”

Symbolic Logic
Premise 1: The father only registers evidence consistent with man-made caves.
Premise 2: He ignores or dismisses contrary data.
Conclusion: “All caves must be man-made” is never challenged, thus reinforcing itself.


4.5 Misunderstanding Complexity and Design

Father and Son Scenario
They reach an extraordinarily ornate cavern. The father gazes at its intricate formations. “These shapes are too amazing—definitely the work of skilled hands!” The boy runs his fingers over the natural stone. “Dad, can’t natural laws plus time produce patterns that look carefully designed? Like how crystals form by themselves?”

Symbolic Logic
Let I(x) mean “x appears intricate.”
Let D(x) mean “x has a deliberate designer.”

Father’s assumption:
Premise 1: (I(x) \to D(x)). (“If something looks intricate, it’s designed.”)
Premise 2: I(k). (“This cave is intricate.”)
Conclusion: D(k). (“Hence, it must be designed.”)

He ignores the possibility that intricacy can arise from non-intelligent processes.


5. Conclusion

Father and Son Scenario
Exiting the cave, the boy reminds his father, “Some caves might be man-made, but that doesn’t mean every cave must be.” The father scratches his head. “I guess I never thought about how water, minerals, and time could carve tunnels too.” Through their journey, the father’s unwavering assumption is softened as he realizes nature can form complex structures without human help—just as creationist arguments often fail to acknowledge natural processes that produce complexity.

Symbolic Logic
Final lesson: The father’s universal claim—\forall x (C(x) \to M(x))—is refuted by evidence that at least one cave is naturally formed: \exists x (C(x) \wedge \neg M(x)). Any universal statement is toppled once a valid counterexample is discovered.


Comprehensive Symbolic Logic Section

Below is a single, integrated presentation of all the symbolic logic formulations referenced throughout the essay. These formalizations illustrate the father’s flawed assumptions about cave origins—mirroring creationist reasoning on complex structures in nature.


Definitions of Symbols

  • C(x) means “x is a cave.”
  • M(x) means “x is man-made.”
  • Complex(x) means “x is complex.”
  • O(x) means “x is an observed cave (by the father).”
  • N(x) means “x is a naturally formed cave.”
  • P(x) means “x can be produced by natural processes.”
  • I(x) means “x appears intricate.”
  • D(x) means “x has a deliberate designer.”

Fundamental (Creationist-Style) Argument

  1. Claiming Complexity Implies a Designer
    • Premise 1: \forall x ((Complex(x) \wedge C(x)) \rightarrow M(x))
      (“For every cave x, if x is complex and x is a cave, then x must be man-made.”)
    • Premise 2: C(k) \wedge Complex(k) (“The specific cave k is a cave and is complex.”)
    • Conclusion: M(k) (“Therefore, the cave k is man-made.”)

This captures the father’s starting assumption that all complex caves must be artificially created.


Overgeneralization

The father observes only man-made caves, then concludes all caves must be man-made.

  • Observed Premise: \forall x (O(x) \rightarrow M(x))
    (“Every cave I have personally seen—an ‘observed cave’—is man-made.”)
  • Invalid Conclusion: \forall x (C(x) \rightarrow M(x))
    (“Therefore, any cave whatsoever must also be man-made.”)

Here, the father incorrectly extends his limited observations to a universal rule.


Circular Reasoning (Begging the Question)

The father uses “All caves are man-made” as proof that any new cave he encounters is man-made, which is the very claim in question.

  1. Premise (assumed true from the start): \forall x (C(x) \rightarrow M(x))
    (“For every x, if x is a cave, then it is man-made.”)
  2. The new cave k satisfies C(k).
  3. Conclusion: M(k) (“Hence, k is man-made.”)

This is circular because the father’s premise is the same as the conclusion he seeks to prove.


Ignoring Natural Processes

The father denies that nature alone can produce caves, excluding a viable explanation.

  • Father’s stance: \forall x (C(x) \rightarrow \neg P(x))
    (“For all x, if x is a cave, then it cannot be produced by natural processes.”)
  • Reality (counterexample): \exists y (C(y) \wedge P(y))
    (“There is at least one cave y that arises from natural processes.”)

Once a naturally formed cave exists, the father’s universal claim is invalid.


Confirmation Bias

The father only acknowledges evidence suggesting artificial origins and dismisses contrary indications.

  • Premise: “The father accepts M(x) as true if it seems consistent with man-made features.”
  • Premise: “The father ignores geological signs (P(x)) that a cave might be natural.”
  • Conclusion: “He never revises \forall x (C(x) \rightarrow M(x)), reinforcing the belief that all caves are man-made.”

No direct contradiction appears in his data set because he systematically filters out or discounts disconfirming evidence.


Misunderstanding Complexity and Design

The father equates appearance of intricacy with deliberate design, failing to consider natural processes that generate intricate patterns.

  • Father’s assumption: (I(x) \rightarrow D(x)) (“If something is intricate, then it was deliberately designed.”)
  • Observation: I(k) (“The cave k is intricate.”)
  • Conclusion: D(k) (“Therefore, k must be designed.”)

He overlooks that geological and environmental processes can produce highly structured formations without a conscious designer.


Final Logical Lesson

Any universal statement such as \forall x (C(x) \rightarrow M(x)) (“All caves are man-made”) is disproved as soon as a valid counterexample appears—namely, a naturally formed cave \exists x (C(x) \wedge \neg M(x)). This mirrors how creationist arguments fail when natural processes are shown to account for complexity without recourse to a designing mind.


9 responses to “✓ All Caves are Designed”

  1. Ron M. Avatar
    Ron M.

    Phil,

    The problem I see with the argument is that it doesn’t consider differing levels of complexities. While I would agree that some “caves” can have the appearance of “design,” not all elements of caves can be grouped along the same intuitive or evidential lines.

    If I enter a series of caves, as you’ve described above, then sure, it’s a reasonable conversation that you’ve posted here. If, however, I enter a particular cave that has fairly obvious pillars hewn into the rock, a small entrance that leads into a small sepulchre, and the arch above the entrance has an inscription carved (or appears to be carved anyway) into it with a fairly common message and name, then the conversation is going to be a little different. I’ve not seen any “designer,” but I can recognize design principles at work. 

    When I look at nature and see a certain level of what appears to be informational content, and with what appears to be intent, I have to reasonably consider that. Is the cell designed… I don’t know. It just really, really appears that way. Same for universal laws.

    1. Phil Stilwell Avatar
      Phil Stilwell

      Thank you for the thoughtful pushback. I appreciate you taking the time to engage with this analogy. Your points about degrees of complexity and apparent design raise valid intuitions, and they help us sharpen the distinction between what feels reasonable and what actually holds under scrutiny. Let me respond to three key themes you touched on: complexity thresholds, the appearance of intent, and inference vs. projection.

      1. Degrees of Complexity Don’t Justify Design Inference Without Eliminating Natural Alternatives

      You’re absolutely right that not all complexity is the same. But the crucial misstep is assuming that increased complexity automatically implies design. This is the central fallacy captured in the flawed inference:

      I(x) → D(x)
      “If x is intricate, then x is designed.”

      That inference only works if we have ruled out that x could be produced by natural processes, i.e., ¬P(x). But in many cases (cells, ecosystems, even entire biospheres), science has shown us that natural mechanisms can indeed produce intricate outcomes.

      Contrast this with a carved inscription: the contextual background and known causal pathway (human tool use, language, intent) make the inference valid. But extending this model to all complexity—particularly in biological or cosmological contexts—without eliminating P(x) (natural causation) is unwarranted. It commits the argument from ignorance fallacy.

      2. Appearing Intentional Is Not Evidence of Actual Intent

      You suggest that a cave with inscriptions or other clearly artificial features “just seems” designed. That’s completely understandable. Our cognitive machinery is built for hyperactive agency detection—a survival advantage when uncertainty is costly.

      But that doesn’t mean our intuitions are accurate. Think of a termite mound or the eye-like patterns on butterfly wings: they appear intentional, yet are fully explainable by non-intentional processes.

      The symbolic flaw here is:

      I(x) → D(x)
      gets universalized to:
      ∀x (I(x) → D(x))

      But this universalization is invalid. The presence of intricate structure does not entail intent unless we first eliminate natural causes. Without that, design becomes a placeholder, not an explanation.

      3. Overextension of Design Models Beyond Their Appropriate Domain

      Your final point—that the cell or the laws of physics seem designed—reveals a common epistemic pattern. It’s natural to analogize unknowns to knowns. But this pattern must be checked.

      In logic:

      “Every complex artifact I know is designed”
      becomes
      “Everything complex must be designed”

      This leap is precisely the overgeneralization the father in the cave story commits:

      Observed: ∀x (O(x) → M(x))Invalidly concludes: ∀x (C(x) → M(x))

      That is, “everything I’ve seen was man-made” becomes “everything is man-made.”

      Likewise, just because complexity in human artifacts correlates with design, it does not follow that all complexity derives from a conscious agent—especially when natural mechanisms (evolution, chemistry, physics) have demonstrated robust explanatory power.

      Final Thought

      Your intuitions about design are understandable. But design cannot remain a default explanation simply because something looks designed. Just as one naturally formed complex cave falsifies the rule “all caves are man-made,” one well-understood natural mechanism that generates complexity undermines the necessity of positing a designer.

      We have robust, testable, and expanding models of how natural processes give rise to intricate structures. The challenge is not whether design feels right—but whether it adds explanatory power without presupposing what it’s trying to prove.

      Thank you again for your engagement, Ron. Your challenges are welcome and valuable.

      1. Ron M Avatar
        Ron M

        Thanks Phil.

        So I will try to take this one at a time, and then draw some kind of conclusion. I think that I’ve stated elsewhere that I don’t know how far we can get down this path. That said I will do my best.

        #1) 

        I would agree with your conditional. Where I would push back is on the subject of biological complexity. There is a lot going on here. I’m not sure what your background is in cell study, and I’m not sure how much it matters for this conversation – I’m not going to attempt to pull rank (especially when I don’t know your rank, or even your full ideological position). The cell is an incredibly complex reality. It doesn’t stop at just being complex, but also has directionality to it… I would argue information. DNA codes for protein, which makes the cell able to function across, or within, various environments. The last time I checked some of the “simpler” cells, I’ll take E. coli for example, have what appear to be informational content in the area of 4 to 5 million base pairs, and an estimated 4 to 5 thousand genes, at current count. 

        This is no small matter. It’s comparable to a book. Could there be, as you’ve argued, a natural causation for something like that… I can’t rule it out. Although this is not a proof, it’s evidence that I observe, and it’s difficult to get my head wrapped around a natural causation for something of this magnitude. I would argue that it’s not an argument from ignorance (AfI). We are now quite aware of what is involved. It could only be an AfI on the simplest levels. Could the cell’s genome, generally speaking, gotten there by some methodologically natural means? Yes, but I would contend that it’s not likely.

        #2)

        I would agree to some extent. I don’t think that “creationists” (I use quotes because I’m probably within the camp of theistic evolutionist, depending on what descriptions are in play for any of these terms) have done themselves any favors be looking at every observation and seeing God in the details (God may or may not be such). Our intuitions may not be accurate, however they may still be accurate. There has to be a case by case analysis using a reasoned approach. A lot of my study was in cell structure. Could the structures have naturally formed… perhaps, but it became a stretch. And I would agree that most universalizations are invalid to some degree, but that goes both ways. I don’t assume that empirical causation is the only game in town.

        #3) I usually go to great lengths to avoid what I would call epistemological generalizations that you’ve appeared to allude to. It is reasonable, however, to make observations and draw an inference. Evolution has limits if we’ve accurately (for the most part) deciphered what those limitations are.

        Final thought:

        On your final thought… again I would argue that it can go both ways. One cannot assume strict empirical causation without first proving strict empiricism. That said… I appreciate your tone.

    2. Phil Stilwell Avatar
      Phil Stilwell

      Thanks, Ron. You raise serious concerns—particularly regarding biological complexity, intuitive inference, and epistemic boundaries—that deserve a rigorous reply.

      Let me respond in structured fashion to each of your points.

      1. The Inference to Design from Genomic Complexity

      You reference the genome of E. coli and its 4–5 million base pairs as a level of complexity comparable to a book. That’s an apt analogy in terms of data density. But analogies must be tightly scrutinized when used as arguments, especially where the inference is:

      “A book requires an author; therefore, DNA must require one too.”

      Here’s the problem: this kind of reasoning assumes semantic intentionality—that informational patterns in DNA function like meaningful language. But in DNA, “information” is functional rather than semantic. It’s chemical sequences that produce biochemical reactions, not intentions, ideas, or propositions.

      So the underlying fallacy here is a category error:

      It conflates functional complexity with intentional communication.

      While a human-written book encodes intentional meaning for a conscious reader, a genome produces regulatory effects via biochemistry—effects which can and do emerge incrementally through natural selection without a foresightful agent.

      In logic, the flawed formulation is:

      D(x) because I(x)
      “x is designed because x is intricate”

      But as I argued earlier, this holds only if we have ruled out:

      P(x)
      “x can be produced by natural processes.”

      We haven’t ruled that out. In fact, we have positive evidence for the gradual accumulation of genetic information through well-understood mechanisms such as mutation, recombination, and selection. There’s no known mechanism by which genomes require intentionality.

      Moreover, when you say “perhaps it’s not likely,” the implicit standard you’re invoking is plausibility relative to intuition rather than plausibility relative to mechanistic constraints. This is where our intuitions often betray us—especially when confronting billions of years and cumulative processes.

      And regarding your claim that this isn’t an Argument from Ignorance (AfI): that depends on how the design claim is structured. If it’s:

      “We don’t currently know how nature could have done this; therefore, design,”

      —that’s AfI. But if the claim is:

      “We have detailed models for natural pathways, but find design to be a better explanation,”

      —then you’re in the realm of Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE). But I’d argue the naturalistic models win in terms of testability, parsimony, and predictive power. The design hypothesis has no mechanism, no testable constraints, and no independent evidence of a designer external to the data.

      2. Regarding Intuition and Selective Agency Attribution

      I appreciate your self-awareness in noting that intuitive design inferences might be misleading. You state, “Our intuitions may not be accurate, however they may still be accurate.” This is fair—but epistemically inert without criteria for when and why intuition deserves override or endorsement.

      Cognitive science consistently shows that our intuitions about agency are evolutionarily tuned for survival, not truth. We over-ascribe agency because false positives (thinking a rustle in the grass is a predator) are safer than false negatives. This makes intuitive design detection psychologically understandable—but not epistemologically reliable.

      So when you say “a stretch” in believing cellular structures formed naturally, that “stretch” is only meaningful if it reflects evidential tension, not intuitive resistance. Your own expertise in cell structure may give you deep familiarity with the complexity—but familiarity does not translate into epistemic authority unless it rigorously evaluates competing causal mechanisms on evidential grounds.

      3. On Avoiding Epistemological Generalizations

      You rightly warn against overgeneralizing epistemic rules. But there’s an asymmetry here that needs to be acknowledged:

      — The empiricist model is grounded in demonstrable constraint, falsifiability, and corrigibility.
      — The design model, as typically used, lacks independent criteria for testing its assertions.

      So when you suggest that empirical causation is not “the only game in town,” that may be true metaphysically, but epistemologically, it’s the only game that keeps score.

      The logic you invoke—“we cannot assume strict empiricism unless we first prove strict empiricism”—commits a subtle category error. Empiricism is not a metaphysical claim but a methodological stance, justified not by proof but by performance. It’s adopted not because it’s metaphysically certain, but because it works: it makes accurate predictions, generates reliable technologies, and adjusts in light of failure.

      Design-based explanations, by contrast, generally stop inquiry. They don’t offer a mechanism that can fail, which means they don’t compete in the same epistemic arena.

      Final Analysis: Competing Explanatory Models

      The design hypothesis adds no predictive power. It does not explain why genomes are the way they are, nor which patterns we should expect. It merely says, “this looks hard to imagine happening naturally, so maybe a designer did it.”

      That is not a competing explanation; it is a placeholder for uncertainty.

      In contrast, the naturalistic model:
      — Accounts for functional adaptation,
      — Explains nested hierarchies in the tree of life,
      — Predicts transitional forms,
      — And has undergone empirical refinement for over 160 years.

      So even if we grant that biological complexity is emotionally and intuitively compelling, the rational response is not to posit a mind but to examine which model best accounts for the data without circular inference, premature closure, or untestable assumptions.

      Final Thought

      I value your openness and nuance, Ron. You’ve avoided the cruder forms of creationist apologetics and opted instead for a more epistemically responsible line of inquiry. But in the end, the problem is not that design is emotionally compelling—it is that its explanatory credentials fail under the weight of evidence, logic, and methodological discipline.

      1. Ronald Morley Avatar
        Ronald Morley

        Hello again Phil,

        So… I don’t know how far down this path we want to go, or realistically can go. I appreciate people challenging me on my current positions, and I appreciate your demeanor in these conversations. There were things in your response that I concur with, and several more that I do not concur with. Each of the disagreements probably deserve their own conversation, and who knows how far that would go. And the conversation, thus far, has not even touched on the peripheral discussions that would be generated by what we’ve discussed thus far.

        That said, I will attempt to address at least a couple of things, and I should preface what I will say here by saying that these are not proofs in any strict sense. These are observations that I compare to realities of which I am aware, and infer something about those observed realities that bring me to a level of confidence (colloquially speaking) about the implications of what I’m observing.

        I’ve claimed, perhaps not with the clarity that I should have, that I think of myself as a theistic evolutionist/evolutionary creationist, and more specifically an evangelical Christian (and I understand there are those who believe that those two notions cannot live together… so be it). That said I am not going to push back on your statements about the apparent reality of, and functional effectiveness of, evolutionary adaptation within biological systems. That argument would have to be for someone who either did not believe in evolutionary paradigms whatsoever, or someone who put unjustifiable constraints on apparent evolutionary post facto modeling.

        And so… You referenced semantic intentionality, and said “But in DNA, ‘information’ is functional rather than semantic.” While I would concur that information in DNA is, or appears to be, functional, I fail to see (and I could have missed it) how information being functional precludes it from being information that is, as often as not, equally, or even better, explained as the result of sentient and intelligent input (which is what we are discussing here). DNA is an instruction template for life. It conveys information at the foundational level of biological structure and function. You said that I was basically claiming “A book requires an author; therefore, DNA must require one too.” I don’t think I have enough information at my disposal to make such a claim with certainty. I would contend, however, that your conclusions would likely be equally problematic. I simply cannot argue that DNA transcription is or is not a “meaningful language” when I cannot get at the original intent, or lack thereof. 

        You went on to say that I was engaging in conflation. That’s a fair accusation, however it is one that I disagree with. At the most bare bones level I would have to be careful not to conflate functional complexity with intentional communication (although I was arguing at the structural level, not the level of communication), but if I have enough evidence to strongly suggest that functional or structural complexity is typically derived from sentient causation, then I don’t think I’m any longer engaging in conflation of systems that I’m observing. If I am writing a standard operating procedure that is functionally complex then I can easily make the case that there is also an inherent intentioned communication, whether it is stated or not. Similarly if I’m looking at a system that codes for functional complexity, and the natural systems that I am acquainted with do not, to date, give me a fairly decent level of confidence that they are capable of producing such complexity, then I have to leave other alternatives on the table, whether I like them or not. 

        You followed that up by stating that we haven’t ruled out natural processes. I would agree, however I would also state our study of the natural world and its processes have come up far short of giving us anything that would be a workable system that would explain proto-biological realities (or abiogenesis if you prefer). I’m with you on the evolutionary processes that you’ve mentioned. This does not, however, speak to the genesis of life. There can be “gradual accumulation of genetic information” once we have life. I hold to tenaciously to that doctrine, although I’m also aware of many of the unanswered questions that stem from that supposition. My issue is that we can’t, from everything I’ve seen, get to life in the first place. I think you’ve alluded to chemical evolution, but my research into that area doesn’t give me near the confidence in abiogenesis that you seem to have. They’re still putting up the Urey-Miller experiments as some kind of evidence for abiogenesis, and the problems are rarely, if ever, mentioned (Chirality problems, downstream complexity, etc.).  

        I told you that I would respond to a couple of things, but I’ve gone on long enough already, and I don’t want to make some vague second argument that is not backed up with some reasoned substance to it. Suffice it to say that you referenced “empirical causation.” I was careful to say that strict empiricism is what I was talking about, not just empiricism. That’s its own conversation, but like I say, I’ve gone on long enough here. I will give you the final word, and again this whole conversation is a long one that might deserve a different platform of exchange.

        All the best.

  2. Phil Stilwell Avatar
    Phil Stilwell

    Let me respond by reframing the conversation around a central principle that guides my reasoning: I follow the best available evidence, and I infer based on the historical reliability of explanatory models.

    1. Following the Evidence Means Letting Success Be the Guide

    You’ve stated that functional complexity often arises from intelligent sources in our experience, and that such analogies should leave room for design. That sounds intuitive, and for many, compelling. But epistemically, I don’t begin with analogy—I begin with track record.

    Across centuries, the more we’ve explored phenomena once attributed to gods or designers—thunder, disease, planetary motion, biodiversity—the more naturalistic explanations have displaced supernatural ones. And they haven’t done so by accident or brute assertion, but through rigorous inductive success: they’ve been predictive, testable, and corrective.

    Supernatural explanations, by contrast, have never generated a single confirmed, testable breakthrough in any domain of natural inquiry. They may feel satisfying, but they do not function as explanations. They don’t constrain outcomes, produce models, or risk falsification.

    So when faced with an unsolved problem—be it the complexity of the genome, the fine-tuning of constants, or the origin of life—I don’t assume we’ve reached the end of natural inquiry. I look back and ask:

    “Which type of explanation has historically closed knowledge gaps: supernatural ones, or naturalistic ones?”

    And the answer is overwhelmingly one-sided. That’s the inductive inference I follow.
    It’s not a rejection of the supernatural a priori. It’s a rejection of its empirical futility.

    2. I’m Not Claiming We Know Everything—But That Our Tools Are Working

    You mention abiogenesis and the ongoing gaps in that research. That’s fair. There are still open questions. But the key point isn’t whether science has answered everything—it’s that science has a track record of turning unknowns into knowns without appealing to untestable agents.

    Design arguments rarely include a mechanism, never predict data ahead of time, and lack a known causal chain. They’re retrospective and unconstrained. That makes them not just scientifically unhelpful, but also epistemically inert.

    This is why I don’t treat design as a viable competing explanation. Not because I’ve proven it false, but because it behaves like an explanatory dead-end.

    By contrast, even in its incomplete state, the naturalistic framework has given us:

    — A model of evolution that predicts both micro and macro adaptations.
    — A genetic code that reflects descent with modification.
    — Experimental models (in systems chemistry, self-replicating molecules, etc.) that increasingly bridge once-yawning gaps.

    No supernatural model has done any of this.

    3. Empiricism Is Not a Worldview—It’s a Betting Strategy

    You mentioned the distinction between empiricism and strict empiricism, and you’re right to make that distinction. But what I operate under is neither metaphysical naturalism nor a closed empiricist worldview. I follow an inductive methodology:

    “Believe in proportion to evidence. And trust the methods that have produced the most reliable knowledge.”

    The supernatural may not be impossible, but it has been, so far, explanatorily bankrupt. That’s enough to shift my credence heavily in favor of natural causes—even when some gaps remain.

    It’s not that I know design is false. It’s that every time the two models compete, design has failed to deliver. So even if I’m agnostic about some questions, I’m not agnostic about which method is likelier to get us answers.

    4. Historical Pattern: From Supernatural Gaps to Natural Mechanisms

    There’s a long and telling pattern in human history: phenomena once attributed to divine or supernatural causes have consistently been reclassified under natural mechanisms as our understanding has improved. Lightning is a textbook example. In ancient cultures, it was routinely attributed to the will of gods—Zeus, Thor, Baal—depending on the geography. It was mysterious, powerful, and awe-inspiring. Divine agency seemed like the only reasonable explanation.

    Then came electrons, atmospheric charge gradients, and the natural physics of electrostatic discharge. No divine agency needed—just unseen but testable particles and forces.

    This story has repeated across domains: disease once blamed on demons is now linked to microbes; madness once spiritualized is now studied neurologically; the motion of planets once read as omens is now governed by gravitation.

    Each time a mystery was solved, the supernatural shrank, not because of dogma, but because naturalistic models demonstrated causal adequacy.

    So when faced with remaining mysteries like the origin of life or the complexity of biological systems, we must ask:

    What has the pattern of history taught us about which kinds of explanations pay epistemic dividends?

    And that inductive pattern points overwhelmingly toward nature, not the divine.

    Final Thought

    Ronald, you’re clearly not leaning on lazy creationist tropes. You’re reasoning carefully, leaving room for nuance, and showing epistemic restraint. I respect that immensely.

    But to answer your most basic concern: Why don’t I consider supernatural design plausible?
    Because when I look at the empirical scoreboard over the past several centuries, it’s not even close.

    I don’t know exactly how everything came to be. But I do know what kinds of explanations have earned my trust. And supernatural ones simply haven’t.

    1. Phil Stilwell Avatar
      Phil Stilwell
      (Click to view a larger version.)
      1. Ronald Morley Avatar
        Ronald Morley

        Hey Phil,

        I know that I promised you the last word. This has probably gone on well past its usefulness. I will end, for my part in this area, with a couple of observations.

        First, I work in (although that might change for various reasons), and my academic background is largely in, the sciences. I have no problem pursuing empirical models of information acquisition. It seems, however, that embedded within your responses is a certain fundamental appeal that I don’t concur with. I have tried to cling, in this section’s posts, to a very particular and very important part of biological inquiry that has some very heavy ramifications on discussions elsewhere… that of abiogenesis, and how initial life came about. In my search I have not found a sustainable model that allows for a naturally methodological initiation to life on Earth. This is not a God of the gaps argument (although some persist in calling it that). If we find a sustainable model then I am open to hearing about it, and open to researching it to see if it is somehow empirically verifiable, and that it can stand up to scrutiny. Additionally this is not something that is now recent in our scientific understanding and pursuit. We’ve had enough time to get closer to a workable model (such as biological evolution has done, I believe, and has been very successful in doing). The more we learn about the various functionalities of the cell, and what would be required for proto-genesis, the further we are away from a sustainable model. If you can show me research that contravenes that position then please point it out to me. I’ve not found it.

        Second, and I appeal to your chart on this, much of what you seem to claim as the “supernatural” ideological position is simply not so… at least not for those I associate with. Are there people in the professing Christian camp who claim that “God is in control”… yes. I’m not one of those. Do I believe in a God that is unimaginably powerful, and knows a whole lot more that I do… again, yes. That is a far cry, however, from claiming that Zues, or Thor, or the God of the Bible creates lighting bolts, or that all life is the result of “special creation” (whatever that actually means), etc. Studies of empirical reality (scientific disciplines) have a very good track record, to a large degree. In some other areas, however, the track record has recently been, well, not so great, especially if that “track record” spills over into, and informs, other areas of life. If by appealing to only the naturalistic world/universe/reality as an adequate, and for that matter exclusive, reasoning to explain itself, you are now faced with unintended downstream consequences, then the whole model needs to be examined with a higher scrutiny. Depending on which statistical outlay one is looking at, then another 170K people will die by the end of the day. There are implications in that that need to be considered. Perhaps elsewhere on your site you delve into that. I will look.

        I think I’ve said my peace. It remains good and challenging to correspond with you.  

  3. Phil Stilwell Avatar
    Phil Stilwell

    Ron, I appreciate the integrity and calm thoughtfulness you continue to bring to this exchange. Your emphasis on the limitations of current abiogenesis models, your distinction from naïve supernaturalism, and your openness to data all mark you as someone not reaching for convenient answers but genuinely trying to weigh the best available ones.

    Let me focus the remainder of our dialogue on a single key point—epistemic humility in the face of gaps—and draw out an analogy that might help reframe the kind of confidence you’ve placed in design.

    1. Imagine a Scientist from 1500 CE

    Let’s go back to the year 1500.
    A well-educated scholar—a man of reason, perhaps even a proto-scientist—sits by a window during a thunderstorm, scribbling his thoughts.

    He sees a brilliant flash, a booming roar, and then writes:

    “Lightning appears to strike with precise intention, targeting trees, towers, or temples with terrifying force. There is no known mechanism that accounts for this awesome power. And while I acknowledge that not every mystery is resolved by invoking gods, I cannot imagine how such force and specificity could arise naturally. Thus, I conclude: a divine agent is almost certainly the source of lightning.”

    To modern ears, this sounds premature—perhaps even quaint. But we must ask: was he being irrational?
    Or was he simply doing what many people still do today:
    — observing a vast unknown,
    — feeling that current models fall short,
    — and defaulting to the most intuitively satisfying explanation available: design by a mind?

    Now let me ask you, Ronald:

    • If you were born in 1500, and that man invited you into his study—would you have agreed with him?
    • Would you have said, “You’re right—we’ve had enough time. We should know by now. Therefore, the divine explanation is warranted”?
    • Or would you have said, “No. If we don’t know yet, the most honest answer is simply: we don’t know yet”?

    2. Why This Matters for Abiogenesis

    You and I both acknowledge that the origin of life remains unsolved.
    But I ask: is it more honest—more rational—to say:

    “We haven’t found a complete model yet, so I will lean toward a designer”?

    Or to say:

    “We haven’t found a complete model yet, and therefore I suspend judgment”?

    To me, the most epistemically responsible stance is the second one. It honors uncertainty without inventing an explanation that has no mechanism, no independent evidence, and no predictive success.

    You rightly say this is not “God of the Gaps.” But the pattern is strikingly similar:

    • Mystery arises.
    • Natural models are difficult.
    • Design is inserted, not as a testable mechanism, but as a placeholder for incomprehensibility.

    3. What the Track Record Actually Shows

    You mention that “the more we learn about the cell, the further we get from a workable model.” I understand that impression. But history warns us that complexity often precedes understanding. Again, look back:

    • The human brain was once impenetrable. Then came neurochemistry, cognitive models, and brain imaging.
    • Language once seemed irreducibly divine. Now we have evolutionary linguistics, child language acquisition data, and computational modeling.
    • Lightning seemed the fingerprint of a god. Now we understand charge separation, electron flow, and discharge paths.

    So when you say the track record in some areas has “not been so great,” I would ask:

    • Compared to what?
    • Where has design advanced our understanding of the origin of life—or anything else in biology?
    • What would we expect to find if the design hypothesis were actually true?
    • How do we distinguish “design” from “I don’t understand this yet”?

    If a claim has no measurable content, no causal mechanism, and no differential prediction, is it even meaningful as an explanation?

    4. Socratic Questions for Reflection

    Let me close with a few Socratic questions—not rhetorical barbs, but sincere invitations to epistemic reflection:

    • If a design hypothesis never predicts data better than natural models, how can it remain your default?
    • If every single domain once held up as evidence for a designer—weather, disease, biodiversity, even morality—has gradually yielded to natural explanation, is it reasonable to expect this pattern will reverse for abiogenesis?
    • If we grant that invoking a god for lightning in 1500 was unjustified by today’s standards, how is invoking design for abiogenesis in 2025 any different—aside from scale?
    • And finally: If “I don’t know” is an acceptable position in cosmology, neurology, and consciousness studies—why not in abiogenesis?

    Final Thought

    Ronald, you’ve shown yourself to be a measured, intellectually honest dialogue partner. You don’t reach for easy certainties, and you respect the seriousness of this inquiry. That’s all anyone could ask for.

    But for my part, I remain convinced that the only honest path through the unknown is through disciplined, self-correcting exploration, not through positing a mind behind complexity whenever nature hasn’t yet revealed its cards.

    Whatever the origin of life turns out to be, it will be revealed through continued inquiry—not retreat into mystery.

    I remain grateful for your engagement, and should you wish to pursue this or any adjacent topic further, I’m always glad to continue the conversation.

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