◉ Divine Promise and Early Muslim Expectation of Victory:
A Qur’anic Foundation

The early Muslim community emerged with a firm conviction: worship of the one true God, Allah, guaranteed divine favor—including military victory. This belief was not arbitrary. It was anchored in the very text of the Qur’an, which repeatedly linked success on the battlefield and in worldly affairs to the faithfulness of the believers and the might of Allah. The Qur’an’s assurances shaped early Muslim self-understanding, providing both inspiration and a standard by which to judge their communal and military fortunes.


The Battle of Badr, the first major military engagement of the Muslims, is portrayed as a moment of miraculous victory:

Arabic:
«وَلَقَدْ نَصَرَكُمُ اللَّهُ بِبَدْرٍ وَأَنتُمْ أَذِلَّةٌ ۖ فَاتَّقُوا اللَّهَ لَعَلَّكُمْ تَشْكُرُونَ»
(Al-Imran 3:123)

English:
“And Allah had already given you victory at Badr when you were weak. So fear Allah that you may be grateful.”

➡ This verse instilled in the believers the view that Allah’s support could overturn any material disadvantage, confirming their status as recipients of divine aid.


The Qur’an left little ambiguity that when Allah aids the believers, their victory is assured:

Arabic:
«إِن يَنصُرْكُمُ اللَّهُ فَلَا غَالِبَ لَكُمْ ۖ وَإِن يَخْذُلْكُمْ فَمَن ذَا الَّذِي يَنصُرُكُم مِّن بَعْدِهِ ۗ وَعَلَى اللَّهِ فَلْيَتَوَكَّلِ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ»
(Al-Imran 3:160)

English:
“If Allah helps you, none can overcome you; but if He forsakes you, who is there that can help you after Him? So in Allah let the believers put their trust.”

➡ This was not just a spiritual assurance — it was a political and military expectation, anchoring early Muslim confidence in success against larger and better-equipped enemies.


The Qur’an emphasizes that victory is a domain of Allah’s will alone:

Arabic:
«وَمَا النَّصْرُ إِلَّا مِنْ عِندِ اللَّهِ ۚ إِنَّ اللَّهَ عَزِيزٌ حَكِيمٌ»
(Al-Anfal 8:10)

English:
“And victory is not but from Allah. Indeed, Allah is Exalted in Might and Wise.”

➡ The direct link between monotheism, obedience, and triumph reinforced early Muslim belief that their worship of the only true God would distinguish them in history and ensure their success.


The Qur’an also offered conditional assurances:

Arabic:
«يَا أَيُّهَا الَّذِينَ آمَنُوا إِن تَنصُرُوا اللَّهَ يَنصُرْكُمْ وَيُثَبِّتْ أَقْدَامَكُمْ»
(Muhammad 47:7)

English:
“O you who have believed, if you support Allah, He will support you and plant firmly your feet.”

➡ Victory was not automatic; it was tied to the degree to which believers upheld and advanced Allah’s cause.


The Qur’an framed fighting in Allah’s cause as part of a sacred contract, with victory in this life or the next:

Arabic:
«إِنَّ اللَّهَ اشْتَرَىٰ مِنَ الْمُؤْمِنِينَ أَنفُسَهُمْ وَأَمْوَالَهُم بِأَنَّ لَهُمُ الْجَنَّةَ ۚ يُقَاتِلُونَ فِي سَبِيلِ اللَّهِ فَيَقْتُلُونَ وَيُقْتَلُونَ ۖ وَعْدًا عَلَيْهِ حَقًّا فِي التَّوْرَاةِ وَالْإِنجِيلِ وَالْقُرْآنِ ۚ وَمَنْ أَوْفَىٰ بِعَهْدِهِ مِنَ اللَّهِ ۚ»
(Al-Tawbah 9:111)

English:
“Indeed, Allah has purchased from the believers their lives and their properties [in exchange] for that they will have Paradise. They fight in the cause of Allah, so they kill and are killed. [It is] a true promise [binding] upon Him in the Torah and the Gospel and the Qur’an. And who is truer to his covenant than Allah?”

➡ This verse solidified the early Muslim expectation that their struggle was backed by divine assurance — whether through victory on earth or ultimate reward in Paradise.


From these verses arose a clear expectation:

  • The Muslims, as the exclusive worshipers of the true God, should naturally prevail over polytheists and disbelievers.
  • Their defeats would signal either a test, a temporary setback, or their own failure to live up to divine mandates—not the weakness of Allah.
  • Victory was not merely hoped for; it was woven into the Qur’anic fabric of their identity.

This expectation helps explain both the confidence of early Muslims in battle and the later anguish of reformers when the reality of military and political decline seemed to contradict this foundational assurance.


The Qur’an’s repeated promises of divine aid and military victory conditioned the early Muslim community to view triumph as their destiny — the natural outflow of worshiping the one true God. When this pattern of victory faltered in later centuries, Muslim intellectuals turned inward, questioning not Allah’s might but their own faithfulness, discipline, and use of reason. The divine assurance of victory remains a cornerstone of Islamic scripture and has profoundly shaped Islamic self-perception across centuries.


◉ Islamic Laments of Decline:
Military, Scientific, and Technological Power in Reformist Voices

From the 19th century onward, Muslim intellectuals and reformers deeply grappled with the reality that Islamic civilization had fallen behind Western powers in military strength, scientific innovation, and technological mastery. The pain of this recognition is etched into their writings, as they sought explanations compatible with faith while urgently calling for reform. What emerges is a tapestry of laments, rich with citations, that indict not Allah’s power but Muslim negligence of divine mandates to seek knowledge, reason, and mastery over the natural world.


Jamal al-Din al-Afghani, perhaps the most forceful voice of Islamic awakening, confronted the contradiction between Muslim aspirations and their defeat at the hands of European powers:

Arabic:
«إن المسلمين متأخرون، ضعفاء، جهلة. يظنون أنهم يستطيعون الاعتماد على الله وحده للفوز، ولكنهم لا يأخذون بالأسباب.»

English:
“The Muslims are backward, weak, and ignorant. They believe they can trust in God and be victorious, but they do not take the means to secure victory.”
(Al-Radd ‘ala al-Dahriyyin, c. 1880)

Arabic:
«ترى المؤمنين يتوسلون بنصرة الله وهم غافلون عن سبل القوة التي أوجبها الله عليهم.»

English:
“You see the believers pleading for God’s help while heedless of the means of strength that God has made obligatory upon them.”
(Al-Urwat al-Wuthqa, co-edited with Abduh, 1884)

Al-Afghani’s frustration is palpable: Allah’s power was never in doubt—what failed was Muslim resolve to act as God’s vicegerents on earth.


Muhammad Abduh lamented how Muslims turned away from the very sciences that once secured their greatness:

Arabic:
«تخلفت الأمة الإسلامية حينما أعرضت عن العقل والبحث في العلوم، بينما تقدم الأوروبيون لأنهم اتبعوا سنن الله في الطبيعة.»

English:
“The Islamic nation fell behind when it turned away from reason, inquiry, and the sciences, and clung to blind imitation. Europe advanced because it followed God’s law in nature.”
(Risalat al-Tawhid, c. 1897)

Arabic:
«إن المسلمين نسوا أن الإسلام دعاهم إلى العلم، فتخلفوا، وسبقهم الغرب الذين أخذوا بالعلوم وفازوا في الدنيا.»

English:
“The Muslims forgot that Islam called them to knowledge; they fell behind, and the West, which embraced the sciences, triumphed in this world.”
(Al-Manar articles, c. 1900, as summarized in collected works)


Syed Ahmad Khan, analyzing the reasons for India’s subjugation, made clear the technological gulf between Muslims and their colonizers:

Arabic (originally in Urdu; rendering of his sentiment):
«المسلمون الذين كانوا يضيئون العالم بعلمهم قد غرقوا في الظلام لأنهم هجروا دراسة الطبيعة والعقل، وتولى الغرب العلوم فتسلط على العالم.»

English:
“The Muslims who once illuminated the world with their knowledge have sunk into darkness because they abandoned the study of nature and reason. Meanwhile, the West took up these sciences and commands the world.”
(Asbab-i Baghawat-i Hind, c. 1858)

Arabic:
«المدافع والسفن والقطارات من صناعة الأوروبيين، بينما المسلمون يكتفون بالدعاء والكسل.»

English:
“The cannons, ships, and railways are the work of Europeans, while Muslims content themselves with supplication and laziness.”
(Speeches to the Aligarh community, late 19th century)


Rashid Rida, writing in Al-Manar, repeatedly linked scientific decline to religious failings:

Arabic:
«ومن مصائب هذه الأمة أنها أعرضت عن علوم الدنيا وتركتها لغيرها، فأحاط بها الضعف والذل.»

English:
“It is one of the tragedies of our nation that we turned away from the sciences of the world, leaving them to others who mastered them and now dominate us.”
(Al-Manar, c. 1902)

Arabic:
«والأمة الإسلامية إنما أذلها الله بتخليها عن سننه في الكون، وتركها للعلوم والعمل بها.»

English:
“God humiliated the Muslim nation because it abandoned His laws in the universe and forsook the sciences and their application.”
(Al-Manar, c. 1905)


What unites these voices is a clear pattern:

  • They do not question Allah’s power.
  • They lament Muslim failure to fulfill divine commands regarding knowledge, inquiry, and effort.
  • They see European power not as an expression of Christian superiority but as the reward of peoples who obeyed God’s natural laws.

The lament is summed up in al-Afghani’s bitter but hopeful declaration:

Arabic:
«ما ضاع المسلمون إلا حينما ظنوا أن الدعاء يغني عن العمل.»

English:
“The Muslims were lost only when they imagined that prayer could substitute for action.”
(Collected speeches, 19th century)


The 19th and early 20th centuries saw leading Muslim intellectuals issue powerful laments about the decline of Islamic power in the military, scientific, and technological spheres. Their writings stand as a record of civilizational self-examination, and as calls to restore what they saw as the true Islamic path: one of reason, inquiry, and mastery of God’s laws in nature.


◉ The Absence of Distinctive Evidence for an Actual Powerful God in Islam: A Contrast Between Divine Promises and Historical Reality

The Qur’an presents the early Muslims with a series of striking promises: the worshipers of the one true God would receive divine support, ensuring victory over their enemies and success in their endeavors. These promises conditioned a strong expectation of tangible and recurring triumph, both in battle and in broader worldly affairs. Yet when we step back and assess history, we find that the empirical track record of Islamic victory and prosperity does not differ meaningfully from that of other religious traditions that also claimed divine backing. This invites reflection: if Islam’s God were truly the one actual God of the universe, should not history have borne distinctive, sustained evidence of this divine favor?


The Qur’an explicitly ties military success to divine support:

Al-Imran 3:160
«إِن يَنصُرْكُمُ اللَّهُ فَلَا غَالِبَ لَكُمْ ۖ وَإِن يَخْذُلْكُمْ فَمَن ذَا الَّذِي يَنصُرُكُم مِّن بَعْدِهِ ۗ»
“If Allah helps you, none can overcome you; but if He forsakes you, who is there that can help you after Him?”

Muhammad 47:7
«إِن تَنصُرُوا اللَّهَ يَنصُرْكُمْ وَيُثَبِّتْ أَقْدَامَكُمْ»
“If you support Allah, He will support you and plant firmly your feet.”

The early Muslims, interpreting such verses plainly, expected that allegiance to the one true God would yield undeniable worldly victories over their polytheist, Jewish, Christian, or other adversaries.


If an actual God of the universe existed and had made such promises, we would reasonably expect:

  • Unambiguous, sustained military victories for Muslims, irrespective of material disadvantage.
  • Clear, consistent technological and scientific superiority in Muslim lands across centuries.
  • Socioeconomic resilience that defied natural explanations, visibly outstripping the capabilities of human-only effort.
  • A pattern of Muslim success that was statistically and empirically extraordinary compared to that of followers of other religions or no religion.

In other words, we would expect a divine signature on history—one that would mark Islam’s God as distinctly real, powerful, and engaged.


The historical record, however, tells a different story:

  • Initial victories (e.g., Badr, conquest of Arabia, early caliphate expansions) were followed by internal divisions (e.g., civil wars among Muslims), defeats, and eventual subjugation by non-Muslims (e.g., Mongol sack of Baghdad, colonial domination by European powers).
  • The scientific golden age of Islam (8th–13th centuries) was real—but paralleled by or later eclipsed by non-Muslim civilizations (e.g., European Renaissance, Enlightenment, Industrial Revolution).
  • Muslim-majority regions today span a wide range of prosperity and hardship, success and failure—no different in pattern from regions dominated by other faiths or no faith at all.

Moreover, other religions also claimed divine aid and witnessed military victories (e.g., Christian Europe’s expansion, Buddhist rulers’ conquests, Hindu empires). No special, sustained historical pattern distinguishes Muslim conquests as uniquely divinely supported.


The track record of Islam’s worldly fortunes is consistent with natural causes:

  • The initial military successes of the early Muslims can be explained through discipline, strategy, geography, and the weakness of their adversaries at that time.
  • The decline of Islamic power aligns with well-understood human factors: political disunity, technological stagnation, economic shifts, and external pressures.

If Islam’s God were actual and powerful as claimed, we should observe a clear, enduring, and extraordinary pattern of divine favor that defies natural explanation. That pattern is absent.


The evidence for Islam’s God as an actual powerful deity — at least as measured by worldly outcomes where divine promises were explicit — is no stronger than the evidence for the gods of other faiths. The victories, defeats, and achievements of Muslim history mirror those of countless human groups throughout time: rising, flourishing, declining, and adapting according to natural, human processes.

An actual God of the universe, committed to providing victory as promised, would be expected to leave an unambiguous imprint in history — an imprint that no honest observer could miss or mistake for the works of human hands. That imprint is simply not there.


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